Super Tuesday poll comparisons

I was pretty shocked by how Obama had pulled ahead in California polls, yet by midnight he was down by almost 20% in the actual vote count. Pundits are claiming it’s all the Hispanics and Asians going for Clinton; apparently everyone* forgot to talk to them over the past few weeks while conducting their polls.

So anyway, I decided to take a look at how the most recent polls compared to the vote count (as of 12:15am – 12:30am on Wednesday morning). I compiled current vote totals compared with RCP poll averages for states with RCP polls or at least a major poll conducted recently. Vote totals are from CNN.com and poll figures are from RealClearPolitics.com.

Significant differences, particularly reversals, are bolded.

Alabama RCP: Clinton 46, Obama 45
Alabama vote: Obama 56, Clinton 42

Arizona RCP: Clinton 42, Obama 36
Arizona vote: Clinton 51, Obama 41

California RCP: Obama 44, Clinton 43
California vote: Clinton 54, Obama 33

Colorado Denver Post poll: Obama 34, Clinton 32, Edwards 17
Colorado vote: Obama 67, Clinton 32

Connecticut RCP: Clinton 42, Obama 38
Connecticut vote: Obama 51, Clinton 47

Georgia RCP: Obama 50, Clinton 32
Georgia vote: Obama 66, Clinton 32

Illinois RCP: Obama 58, Clinton 25
Illinois vote: Obama 65, Clinton 33

Mass RCP: Clinton 48, Obama 41
Mass vote: Clinton 56, Obama 41

Minnesota public radio poll from January: Clinton 40, Obama 33, Edwards 12
Minnesota vote: Obama 67, Clinton 32

Missouri RCP: Clinton 48, Obama 42
Missouri vote: Obama 49, Clinton 48

New Jersey RCP: Clinton 48, Obama 41
New Jersey vote: Clinton 54, Obama 44

New York RCP: Clinton 54, Obama 36
New York vote: Clinton 57, Obama 40

Oklahoma Survey USA: Clinton 54, Obama 27
Oklahoma vote: Clinton 55, Obama 31

Tennessee RCP: Clinton 47, Obama 34
Tennessee vote: Clinton 54, Obama 41

Three of the four reversals went to Obama; the fourth went to Clinton (obviously). And that one exception was the super-important California.

*The lone notable exception being SurveyUSA, who had her up by 10 points, though that was more than negated by Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby, which had Obama up by 13.